Badenoch opens Tory conference with party on firmer ground and a plan to define conservatism

Kemi Badenoch opens the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on firmer ground than a year ago, when MPs were braced for a leadership challenge and the party polled in the mid-teens. Her approval rating has moved from -27 in May 2025 to -3 in the latest Opinium polling, and the party has crept into the low 20s, occasionally edging ahead of Reform UK for the first time in almost two years, according to The Guardian.

The improvement is widely attributed to Badenoch's own standing rather than a recovery in the party's brand. Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common thinktank, said her approval is now net neutral, adding: "Right now, Kemi is the only thing that's holding them up." One senior Tory told the BBC she had "actually defied cynics like me" who initially disapproved of her leadership.

The conference agenda signals a deliberate return to core conservative principles. Badenoch is expected to disavow much of what the party did in office between 2010 and 2024, including growth in the civil service and tax burden, and to set out what she calls classic conservative first principles. The party's conference slogan is "Stronger economy, stronger country", and policy announcements have included a proposed dramatic expansion of prison places and a "tough love" approach to benefits for young people.

Badenoch told interviewers this week the party was "finally saying what we believe" and "should be more aggressive" in displaying its core. The arrival of Andy Burnham as Labour leader gives her a clearer ideological contrast, according to her allies. One senior ally said Burnham had "opened the door to it quite well, as he has harked back to the '70s in a way that I'm astonished by".

The Conservative leader still faces significant obstacles. The party has yet to make real headway among voters who switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats in 2024, and Reform UK remains a threat on the right. One shadow minister admitted: "We've still got a whole battle on the right." Badenoch has ruled out any electoral pact with Nigel Farage, dismissing Reform as a party of protest, but allies hope its appeal will fade.

There are also internal warnings about tone. One former cabinet minister cautioned that Badenoch risks slipping into "an alienating divisive manner – nasty party stuff", and that she must win seats like Cheltenham and Maidenhead as well as Clacton. The party plans to unveil an 88-foot take on the Bayeux Tapestry mocking Labour's downfall, which is expected to be the star attraction at the conference, according to AOL.

“She's strong, she comes across well, she's good at challenging, but she's in a party that's like a smoke alarm with a low battery. You've got used to the beeping, so it doesn't mean anything anymore.”

: Focus group participant quoted by Lord Ashcroft Polls